(bigleaguepolitics)President Donald Trump received a greater share of support in New York state than any Republican has since George H.W. Bush in 1988. Current results reveal that Trump secured almost 43% of the vote in New York, almost 6.5% more than he received when running against Hillary Clinton in 2016. The decreased margin of Democratic victory in New York is one of the largest numerical differences between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in any state.
Bush Senior received 47.5% of the vote in 1988, after which New York has voted for Democrats in double digits ever since.
Previous Republican candidates had been much more soundly defeated, with John McCain receiving 36% of the vote in 2008 and Mitt Romney getting 35%.
2020 has proven to be a difficult year for the Empire State, with New York City becoming the world epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic under Democratic leadership. Many the New York’s most prominent societal and financial elites have begun leaving the states in droves, moving to Sun Belt states such as Florida, Texas and California. As the Democratic Party increasingly aligns itself with white affluent suburbanites, the party’s model may lose its luster with longtime New Yorkers who are less than thrilled with the gradual decline of the state’s economy, as seen in states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania.
It could be that longtime New Yorkers have soured upon the consistently dismal leader provided by legacy Democrats such as Andrew Cuomo and Bill de Blasio, some of whom have taken liberal governance of the state and New York City for granted.
President Trump also wildly overperformed polls forecasting the state’s election, with no major pollster projecting Trump to win more than 36% of support in the state.
New York may eventually become for Republicans what Texas has become for Democrats- a potential game changing swing state with an eroded, historical partisan affiliation. A future Republican with the ability to win New York, as well as the Democratic ‘Blue Wall’ states in the Midwest could potentially rewrite the electoral college map.